Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Adoption & Revenue (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL's value is directly tied to the success of its stablecoins, USD0 and EUR0. The protocol redistributes 100% of its revenue—generated from yield on Treasury Bill collateral—to the community. According to the docs, 70% of revenue is used for buybacks, reducing supply, while 30% is paid weekly in USD0 to users who lock USUAL as USUALx. This model means USUAL's price is fundamentally linked to the Total Value Locked (TVL) and usage of its stablecoins. Recent updates show a completed USUALx unlock phase and over $50M deposited into a new lending market (Usual), indicating active governance and liquidity growth.

What this means: Increased adoption of USD0/EUR0 translates directly into higher protocol revenue. This revenue fuels token buybacks (reducing sell pressure) and provides real yield to stakers, creating a sustainable demand loop for USUAL. If TVL grows, the deflationary buyback mechanism could provide significant upward price pressure.

2. Product Expansion & Integration (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Usual is actively expanding its product suite and cross-chain presence. Key developments include the launch of "Usual Savings" (sUSD0/sEUR0) in November 2025, the integration of virtual IBANs for seamless EUR↔EUR0 conversions via SEPA Instant (The Defiant), and new deployments on chains like TAC. The protocol is also reorganizing its dApp into distinct "Earning Modes" (Cash, Savings, Alpha, Bonds) to improve user experience.

What this means: Successful product launches and smoother fiat on-ramps can attract new users and capital, boosting TVL and revenue—a clear bullish catalyst. However, execution risk is high. The stablecoin space is fiercely competitive, and any failure to gain meaningful market share against giants like USDT and USDC could limit growth and disappoint investors.

3. DeFi Risks & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)

Overview: USUAL operates in a high-risk environment. The protocol has faced security incidents, including a flash loan attack that was thwarted in May 2025 (BlockSec). More critically, its stablecoin derivative USD0++ temporarily depegged to $0.89 in January 2025 after a governance decision, illustrating inherent stability risks (Bitrue). Broader market sentiment is also crucial; the Altcoin Season Index is at 35, indicating a risk-off environment favoring Bitcoin over alts.

What this means: Any security breach or another depegging event could severely damage trust, leading to rapid TVL outflows and a collapsing token price. Additionally, USUAL is highly sensitive to general crypto market cycles. A prolonged "Bitcoin season" or a bear market could see capital rotate out of altcoins like USUAL regardless of its fundamentals, applying sustained downward pressure.

Conclusion

USUAL's future price is a direct function of protocol adoption, facing a clear tension between its innovative revenue-sharing model and the unforgiving risks of the DeFi landscape. For a holder, this means monitoring TVL growth and revenue metrics more closely than general market hype. Will USUAL's community-owned banking model capture enough market share to overcome the sector's inherent volatility and intense competition?