Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Adoption & Revenue (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL's value is directly tied to the success of its stablecoin, USD0. The protocol generates revenue from yield on its Treasury Bill collateral. Per its tokenomics, up to 70% of this revenue is used for USUAL buybacks, while 30% is distributed weekly to users who lock their tokens (USUALx). This model means that as Total Value Locked (TVL) grows, buyback pressure and staker yields increase, potentially creating upward price pressure. Recent product launches like Usual Savings (sUSD0/sEUR0) aim to boost utility and TVL.

What this means: This is bullish because it creates a direct, mechanistic link between protocol usage and token demand. If USD0 adoption accelerates, the revenue-driven buybacks could systematically reduce circulating supply while rewarding long-term holders, supporting the price. The key metric to watch is USD0 TVL growth, as it is the primary driver of this engine.

2. Competitive & Regulatory Landscape (Mixed Impact)

Overview: USUAL operates in the highly competitive stablecoin sector, dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Its value proposition is decentralized governance and profit-sharing. However, its success depends on gaining meaningful market share. Simultaneously, global regulations are crystallizing, like Hong Kong's Stablecoins Bill and the U.S. GENIUS Act, which set standards for issuance and reserves.

What this means: The impact is mixed. Clear, favorable regulation could legitimize protocols like Usual and attract institutional capital, a major bullish catalyst. However, stringent rules could impose compliance costs or limit growth. Bearishly, if USD0 fails to differentiate itself and capture usage from incumbents, the revenue model stalls, capping USUAL's upside. Monitoring USD0's market cap rank among stablecoins is crucial.

3. Security & Execution Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: DeFi protocols are prime targets for exploits. Usual has faced attacks, such as the flash loan attempt halted by BlockSec on 28 May 2025. While its record $16M bug bounty program with Sherlock bolsters security, any future significant loss of funds would severely damage trust. Additionally, governance decisions can introduce risk, as seen in January 2025 when a vote temporarily depegged USD0++.

What this means: This is a persistent bearish risk because a major exploit would likely cause a sharp, sustained drop in TVL and token price as users flee. It underscores that USUAL's price is not only a function of growth but also of flawless operational security. Holders must monitor audit results and governance proposals closely for any changes to risk parameters.

Conclusion

USUAL's path is a tug-of-war between its innovative, self-reinforcing tokenomics and the formidable challenges of the stablecoin arena. For a holder, the outlook is binary: significant upside if adoption accelerates, but substantial downside if security falters or adoption stalls.
Will rising Treasury yields and successful product integrations be enough to drive USD0 past its entrenched competitors?